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      10-19-2021, 06:55 PM   #1
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BMW is not ready to let go of internal-combustion engines

This is good news....we may still be able to enjoy ICE cars for the next 20 years!

https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/bm...gines-just-yet
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      10-19-2021, 08:43 PM   #2
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      10-19-2021, 09:44 PM   #3
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      10-20-2021, 08:50 AM   #4
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All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.
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      10-20-2021, 09:20 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by BMWILUVU View Post
All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.
I tend to agree with this statement, but a couple of key things need to happen first:

1. Charging times need to get much faster and become comparable to "stopping to get gas" along the road during a trip.

2. There needs to be a much more robust charging station infrastructure in place along the more desolate stretches of interstate highways across the U.S.

I don't think it will take too long to figure out item #1 as the demand drives innovation. Item #2 is a huge opportunity for an evolving industry. Making it convenient and comfortable to charge your EV is going to be a boom industry for not just the charging station aspect, but for retail, food, hotel, etc. to get together and make this work.

Early EVs didn't have near the range that would allow me to drive to work and back without charging, but today I could commute for a week on a single charge with some cars.
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      10-20-2021, 11:12 AM   #6
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Even here in California, charging infrastructure is a joke. You'll see a handful of Tesla chargers are some grocery stores that's it. I'm sure Electrify America chargers exist, but I have yet to spot one in the wild. In its current state, all this legislation to ban ICE is clearly far-fetched and not feasible.

BMW and Toyota seem to be the only mass-market automakers who are being pragmatic about electrification.
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      10-20-2021, 01:42 PM   #7
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This is an interesting and different strategy than what some other automakers are discussing. Most are planning on ICE being gone. Jag had a big stance on this. It seems like a smart stance for BMW specifically for the reasons that they give. I know in the US there are a lot of laws on the docket, but that is a decade off. I dont see our infrastructure being set for all electric by then.
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      10-20-2021, 02:46 PM   #8
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BMW really missed a trick.
They were ahead of everyone with the I3 and I8 and then let them die on the vine as they didn't believe BEV was the way to go, similar to Toyota?
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      10-21-2021, 12:36 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roch M4 View Post
This is good news....we may still be able to enjoy ICE cars for the next 20 years!

https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/bm...gines-just-yet
Um nope.

(1.) Of course legacy ICE maker wants more ICE.
It's like if you've played hockey for 15 years and then everyone switches to lacrosse and they ask you your opinion, what are you gonna say? "oh yeah sure, let's ditch everything i'm good at for that new stuff I suck at!"

(2.) ICE MFRs require a massive global supply chain
More specifically, vendors require DEPENDABLE demand. Anyone who thinks this chip shortage is just a one-off covid thing doesn't understand the automotive supply chain - it's because automakers are using 2000s-era chips and didn't give their suppliers a dependable forecast and/or sign volume contracts. Chips are the first of many many many many (did I say many?) ICE supply shortages to come; the chip shortage is simply the first ICE supply chain shortage. Once ICE vendors start pivoting to BEV parts the ICE supply chains will contract beyond recovery.

(3.) Gasoline requires a massive global supply chain
More specifically, refineries require DEPENDABLE demand. Anyone who thinks the US south's gas shortage was a one-off covid thing doesn't understand the petroleum supply chain. As gas consumption starts contracting, gas stations - which have knife edge business models - will start to tank ... as they start balking at X # of gallons supply contracts, refineries will start pulling back on supply ... this'll cause more gas stations to go tits up, etc. Further, you know who wants the quick-stop business gas stations have? Amazon. Walmart. Target. Amazon's "just walk out" and convenience store pilots aren't just for a few locations; they want the US's convenience store business and they DON'T want gas sales. Amazon ain't no dummies - they know the minute gas supply gets to be a pain in the ass consumers will flock to BEVs ... but then they'll want a better convenience store experience and BAM! Amazon Go!

(4.) The US is 16% of BMW's Global sales
Legislative action in China and the EU is already promising a defacto ban on ICE by 2035, and serious limits by 2030. Even if the US only wanted ICE, which large auto makers would be willing & able to build a dying product line for a one-off market post-peak-gasoline? None of them.

(5.) Convenience is the mother of all consumer behavior
Charging in your garage is just more convenient. Home delivery is just more convenient. WFH is just more convenient. Uber is just more convenient. Amazon (and Walmart & Target & Shopify) has been able to build quite a bit of infrastructure pretty fast. Anybody who thinks the grid won't find a way to deliver product to meet consumer demand wasn't around in the 70s when air conditioning started getting popular. The problem isn't building generation capacity, it's predictable demand ... which stops being a problem when the majority of new cars sold are BEVs.


Like it or not, the BEV cake is baked and now we all gotta eat it.
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      10-21-2021, 09:07 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
I tend to agree with this statement, but a couple of key things need to happen first:

1. Charging times need to get much faster and become comparable to "stopping to get gas" along the road during a trip.

2. There needs to be a much more robust charging station infrastructure in place along the more desolate stretches of interstate highways across the U.S.

I don't think it will take too long to figure out item #1 as the demand drives innovation. Item #2 is a huge opportunity for an evolving industry. Making it convenient and comfortable to charge your EV is going to be a boom industry for not just the charging station aspect, but for retail, food, hotel, etc. to get together and make this work.

Early EVs didn't have near the range that would allow me to drive to work and back without charging, but today I could commute for a week on a single charge with some cars.
Its only 2021 and there seems to be a plan by 2030 and it looks like everyone is lining up behind some UN plan. Alot of these things will have 8 years to get worked out.
Another poster from the UK posted:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425
I guess in 2030 I will be the only reckless driver spewing catless smoke on the road. By then BMW cars will look like this (grill gets weirder):
https://www.bmw.com/en/events/iaa202...irst-look.html
I suppose by then the satellites will probably track me, scan my emissions, and automatically give me a ticket.
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      10-21-2021, 09:29 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWILUVU View Post
Its only 2021 and there seems to be a plan by 2030 and it looks like everyone is lining up behind some UN plan. Alot of these things will have 8 years to get worked out.
Another poster from the UK posted:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425
I guess in 2030 I will be the only reckless driver spewing catless smoke on the road. By then BMW cars will look like this (grill gets weirder):
https://www.bmw.com/en/events/iaa202...irst-look.html
I suppose by then the satellites will probably track me, scan my emissions, and automatically give me a ticket.
I got an e-mail from BMWNA yesterday with a picture of the car in the second link:

Name:  Capture.JPG
Views: 1335
Size:  61.6 KB

If this is the future, they'll have to drag me there kicking and screaming all the way. I'll be like the guy in the Rush song Red Barchetta sneaking out to drive my mechanical machine!

Name:  20200226_130508.jpg
Views: 1323
Size:  1.13 MB

Click on the Watch on YouTube link and listen to the words:

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      10-21-2021, 01:12 PM   #12
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sooo they're going to offer automatic, lower displacement, heavily turbocharged hybrid motors ? which will probably sound even worse.
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      10-21-2021, 07:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post

If this is the future, they'll have to drag me there kicking and screaming all the way. I'll be like the guy in the Rush song Red Barchetta sneaking out to drive my mechanical machine!
Dude, no worries - I see people riding horses every day. Fancy high school kids compete on horses. There are plenty of horses that are used for plenty of things...

It's just that having, riding, and supplying horses isn't convenient:

* Where's your nearest horse feed & supplies store?
* Where's your nearest horse saddle & tack shop?
* Where's your nearest stables & stadium jumping grounds?

Well, that's what ICE driving is gonna be like: Plenty available and around, but only for those who like it enough to deal with the inconvenience of making driving ICE an event.

Nobody's gonna drag you anywhere because nobody gives a shit about your hobbies - you'll just have to settle for dragging yourself.

No need to be so dramatic.
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      10-21-2021, 07:55 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Dude, no worries - I see people riding horses every day. Fancy high school kids compete on horses. There are plenty of horses that are used for plenty of things...

It's just that having, riding, and supplying horses isn't convenient:

* Where's your nearest horse feed & supplies store?
* Where's your nearest horse saddle & tack shop?
* Where's your nearest stables & stadium jumping grounds?

Well, that's what ICE driving is gonna be like: Plenty available and around, but only for those who like it enough to deal with the inconvenience of making driving ICE an event.

Nobody's gonna drag you anywhere because nobody gives a shit about your hobbies - you'll just have to settle for dragging yourself.

No need to be so dramatic.
Relax! If my sense of humor or hobbies offend you, I'll kindly ask you to look the other way. By the way, I'd be willing to wager that there are far more horses, tack shops, feed stores, and other horse-related amenities within a 10 mile radius of my house than there are EV charging stations.
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      10-21-2021, 08:25 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
Relax! If my sense of humor or hobbies offend you, I'll kindly ask you to look the other way.
I'm not offended.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dscabra View Post
By the way, I'd be willing to wager that there are far more horses, tack shops, feed stores, and other horse-related amenities within a 10 mile radius of my house than there are EV charging stations
Great! Then riding horses will be super convenient for you ... but finding a gas station or ICE parts in 10 years? that'll probably more expensive and more difficult.

Oh, FYI:

The nearest EV charging station by your house is actually your house. Find your fuse box, and that's where you can install 220 (or even 440!). Or you can just use any 120 outlet.

Said differently, you lost your wager already.
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      10-21-2021, 08:47 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobBMWX3 View Post
This is an interesting and different strategy than what some other automakers are discussing. Most are planning on ICE being gone. Jag had a big stance on this. It seems like a smart stance for BMW specifically for the reasons that they give. I know in the US there are a lot of laws on the docket, but that is a decade off. I dont see our infrastructure being set for all electric by then.
Jaguar is a dead brand walking. They have nothing to lose since ICE clearly hasn't worked for them. Transitioning to EV will be easy for them. BMW is far too big and too entrenched on ICE to just ditch it without a fight. BMW is historically known for its engines, it's in their name after all.
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      10-22-2021, 12:23 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWILUVU View Post
All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.
Oooh, are they using CHEMTRAILS!???
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      10-22-2021, 12:24 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
I'm not offended.



Great! Then riding horses will be super convenient for you ... but finding a gas station or ICE parts in 10 years? that'll probably more expensive and more difficult.
There may not be the over-the-top ridiculousness of today where there's 4 stations on a 4-way intersection, one on each side, and 4 more a block away...but I suspect you will have no problem at all. There are other bigger clouds to yell at.
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      10-22-2021, 01:09 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
There may not be the over-the-top ridiculousness of today where there's 4 stations on a 4-way intersection, one on each side, and 4 more a block away...but I suspect you will have no problem at all.
Exactly! Just like there's no problem today getting horse feed or saddles. I live in the middle of a major metro, and I'm not more than 20 min away from the nearest equestrian supplies store.

The question isn't "is it a problem", the question is, "is it cheap & convenient?"

Because being inconvenienced is most Westerner's greatest fear.


We can break it down from three perspectives to see what's going to happen:

(1.) Who owns US gas stations?
~60% are owned by a single owner / single site operator
~15% are owned by entities with no more than 50 sites (most own 10-12 sites)
~25% are owned by entities who own 50+ sites
And, just a few who own 1000s of sites; e.g., 7-11 + Speedway owns ~7500 stations making them the largest fuel retailer by site count in the US

What's it all mean? Well, there ain't gonna be be consolidation because no single move gets any single player any amount of sites ... which means 75% of US gas stations are pretty economically vulnerable to "pull" refinery business model that requires them to order X# of gallons / month ...

(2.) Who uses gas stations?
Well, in covid scarred 2020 gas sales fell~15% but convenience store sales went up!. That's notable for two reasons:
(a.) People like & need convenience stores
(b.) Even when those people don't need gas

(3.) Where are gas stations?
Valuable real estate! Without getting into details, there are lots of sites on freeways and, to your point, at major intersections.


Add it all up and, yeah, gas stations off major freeways & at major intersections are gonna be fine ... but those sitting on valuable real estate away from major roads ... well they'll have to convert to convenience only because they won't be able to guarantee refineries X# of gallons per week contracts BUT they won't lose foot traffic because people like convenience stores ...

Ultimately most sites on valuable real estate will convert to store-only formats, and probably sell to Amazon Go, Walmart, Target, Walgreens, CVS, WaWa, etc
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      10-22-2021, 05:48 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Croddlebopper View Post
BMW really missed a trick.
They were ahead of everyone with the I3 and I8 and then let them die on the vine as they didn't believe BEV was the way to go, similar to Toyota?
They are required by some states to have there sales of cars be electric. They are spending lots of money on the RandD for eletric.
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      10-22-2021, 06:23 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Germanauto View Post
Jaguar is a dead brand walking. They have nothing to lose since ICE clearly hasn't worked for them. Transitioning to EV will be easy for them. BMW is far too big and too entrenched on ICE to just ditch it without a fight. BMW is historically known for its engines, it's in their name after all.
Its a shame, I always loved Jaguars, even with all of their issues. Lucky for JLR they can depend on Land Rover to support them. Hopefully they can spin Jaguar into a proper new direction, especially since they know how to design beautiful and well driving vehicles. I believe the CEO mentioned he wants to take them into a new direction, more of a boutique automaker against the likes of Aston Martin (who's not doing so hot themselves). Whether this will be seen though is of course questionable.
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      10-22-2021, 09:33 PM   #22
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I'm amused at how many on this forum seem to be swinging on the EV nutsack.
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