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Originally Posted by mkoesel
It will also show up on the spec sheet since a smaller battery can obviously be charged faster than a larger one (charging tech being equal - another area commanding a large portion of battery vehicle R&D). That's going to become an even bigger factor as charging times approach "reasonable" - sub-15 minutes for a full-ish charge.
For the enthusiast it shows up in a lower vehicle weight. Sure, in the current state of evolution, electric vehicles aren't light to begin with, but as time goes on we are going to see weight-optimized electric cars for enthusiasts and efficiency will be an important part of that.
And again, like I say, everything in the drivetrain has already become very commoditized. Everyone is dipping into the same supplier pool for electronics, transmission, fuel systems, turbochargers, etc., and while engine block and heads (and a few other parts) are still made in house, the results are becoming less and less differentiated. So, the lack of competitive advantage in this area you cite isn't new - it has been slowly occurring over the past few decades as increasing regulatory concerns mount and weed out the solutions that aren't cost-competitive. By and large, we have already entered a period of ICE development dormancy, and the automakers are resting on what they've established as brand values over their history. The lion's share of R&D is now going into electric vehicle development.
If BMW and Cadillac swapped 2.0T powertrains, you would apparently head straight to a Cadillac dealership, but I think you might be surprised by how few people you'd find following close behind.
Now, give Cadillac an electric drivetrain with a 350 miles of range and sub-15 minute to-80% charge times, and let's see if that gets attention. Of course BMW is gunning for the same thing, but GM is ahead if what we have heard about their new platform is true. Will this be enough to put in the dent in the market share? Maybe not soon. But if they are able to establish and retain at least some of that advantage as EV sales start to become significant late in the decade? We'll see.
At any rate, to me there is potential for a lot more of substance to sell on than you have used to calculate your current position on the matter. I've tried to provide some factors to think about. We'll know in a few years as EV sales reach a significant enough volume to start to play a role in the market position of traditional automakers relative to one another. In my estimation, worst case is that today's already staid status quo is essentially maintained. Best case, some of the potential areas for gaining an advantage become realized, and we have a far more interesting contest to watch.
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From the beginning I said the differentiation between competing models is becoming smaller and smaller. I didn't say the Cadillac powertrain is its only problem with them but if everyone has the exact same power train as BMW (or close enough buyers can't tell) it makes it a tougher sale to buy a BMW at the higher market price.
I think smaller manufacturers like BMW are far less likely to come out on top of the electric car compared to the larger companies as the amount of money they have to spend is smaller and the parts they produce and spread over all models doesn't have the advantages of the larger manufacturers. They also have the issue of trying to sell sport and luxury and the close to the highest prices in the market (I doubt even close to lowest cost) and when looking at it objectively buyers can't find as many differences as they did in the past. I think medium to long term they will struggle with both electric and autonomy as both require huge R&D budgets.
Tesla is a unique situation where they were able to spend billions for many years and stockholders bought into the program where profits weren't required. They didn't have to worry about being profitable in the 98% of the market, were able to put all resources towards their end goal of electric/autonomy and the 2%. Time will tell if this will work out or if the others beat them on the things Tesla likely don't currently do as well on, like economies of scale, distribution, service.